Lingrove Trading

Moving on

2006-03-05T11:14:00.000+08:00

Hi

If you've visiting here you will notice that I have discontinued posting on this blog.

Basically, living in Australia means I'm upo all night trading them. This is not a problem in and of itself, but it screws up my social life.

So I have made the decision to trade my local markets, the Australian Stock exchange and the Sydney Futures Exchange, with an eye on the NY metals and energy markets for the occasional flutter.

I am building a new site for this purpose and will announce when appropriate.

Cheers

Correction -$24!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! NM!

2006-02-08T04:33:00.000+08:00

Gold WOW!!!

2006-02-08T02:12:00.000+08:00

QUOTE: Gold continues to taunt by trickling upwards. This has sent me scurrying to my textbooks to try and find some sort of bearish implications in all of this so I can wait for a pull back before going long. The best I could find was a "rising wedge", which is allegedly bearish.

All I've got to say is ...... -$20 Ahahahaha

Long Yen

2006-02-07T15:47:00.000+08:00

...and just to avoid any confusion with those of you who trade forex, the futures chart is the inverse of the cash chart as one is USD/JPY and the other is JPY/USD.

We have a trend line break on the intraday chart and looks to me like a swing low is in place. The overall trend is not that clear atm, most likely down depending on the time frame you're looking at, so hopefully we can get to a nice fib retracement number to the upside...that'd be a decent enough profit.

This has run up nicely as I am typing this, so breakeven stop is now in place.

All quiet on the western front

2006-02-07T04:12:00.000+08:00

Meanwhile in Iran things are heating up :-o This situation is a powder keg and I can't see the advantage of the evil empire pursuing the Iranians of their nuclear program...or is it about the Euro oil bourse...either way this has the potential...likelyhood, of escalating out of control. Insanity prevails!

That said, I haven't had a futures trade since wednesday last week. Thank Christ for the Nasdaq! The double top in march crude last week was a no-brainer short, but stood staring at it like a 'roo in the headlights. That one goes into the "you idiot" file. That file is now thicker than the file from my last court case....still trying to figure out which one is more costly. LOL

Gold continues to taunt by trickling upwards. This has sent me scurrying to my textbooks to try and find some sort of bearish implications in all of this so I can wait for a pull back before going long. The best I could find was a "rising wedge", which is allegedly bearish.

These two contracts have the most potential for either elation or depression, given the current environment, hence the close eye on them.

On a different front: My occupation before becoming a full time trader was farriery (shoeing horses). Anyway I gave that the roger after one too many injuries. It pays exceptionally well (as trades go) but shit you get pummeled. Particularly as I was mainly doing racehorses...horsey folk will know what I mean.

Now most farriers are in the business of just hanging iron on the end of horses feet, but no no not me, I am actually qualified (a rarity in Australia) and was pretty good at lower leg pathology, founder and suchlike. This made the job interesting.

Anyway I got talked into doing a horse for a friend, and apart from the massive pain in my lower back and damage to my now soft, sensitive hands, I actually enjoyed it!

It looks like I'll be doing a bit here and there to justify my existence as the word has got out (there are no secrets in Geraldton LOL) Besides, I thought I'd better keep my hand in, farriers may be a high demand occupation in a few years :)

Anyway I've waffled on. Lest I run off at further tangents I'll bid you adieu.

Sell Gold

2006-02-01T22:48:00.000+08:00

Well for better or for worse, I sold my gold contracts @ $575.10

Why? A total loss of momentum, so took the profit that was there. It was a tight stop (it started as a day trade) so 2.5 x risk. Better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick I 'spose.

Sell Crude

2006-01-31T23:36:00.000+08:00

I've sold March Crude Oil on the basis of indicator divergence on the hourly chart at $68.00. This is a profit of 2 x risk. I'd hoped for more but the other energy contracts aren't showing much bullishness either.

I'm holding the Gold overnight

2006-01-31T03:37:00.000+08:00

Quote: Hmmmm, taken a long on April Gold. Intended as a day trade, but my spider senses say It could develop into something more interesting. Stay tuned.

Well I sensed this would go good today. I'm officially calling a triangle breakout (even if it hasn't broken by much)so holding onto this overnight. Also Oil has closed near it's highs.

Apart from me being happy to be on a couple of winners, is this telling us something? Tensions building in Iran? Greenscum -> Helicopter Ben tranfer of power?

If you notice, long bonds are looking bearish. Benny boy gonna keep raising rates further than intimated?

Be alert folks!

April Gold

2006-01-30T23:11:00.000+08:00

Hmmmm, taken a long on April Gold. Intended as a day trade, but my spider senses say It could develop into something more interesting. Stay tuned.

Meanwhile I still in crude oil long. It no mans land here. Looking at ~$69 resistance and a reversal bar as it stands this early in the day. I want to let this develop so giving it some room with a relatively loose intraday trailing stop.

Crude Oil

2006-01-27T02:52:00.000+08:00

March Crude Oil, having retraced to the 61.8% level, has bounced with a comforting degree of accuracy. It has also poked through a trend line I have drawn down from the highs at ~$69. Thats good enough for me with this market....long.

As per usual, Daily on the left, intraday on the right.

Trading Rules

2006-01-25T14:46:00.000+08:00

Well folks,

Most of you who know me, know I'm a bear. So you will be surprised to learn I've gone long on a few stocks (commodities stocks mind you :) ) via options strategies. My stock trading can be busy so I don't post them. It would take too much work to explain the option spreads and adjustments along the way.

Anyway here's Dennis Gartman's 22 rules for trading which you may find interesting.

The 22 Rules of Trading

We give you Master Trader Dennis Gartman's 22 Rules of Trading, many of which you can apply to all sorts of life situations, as well as the markets.

Every day, Dennis Gartman gets up at bout 2:30 AM and writes an information packed 4 page newsletter on the world markets, oil, currencies, commodities political happenings and much more. He is read by the major trading houses and traders all over the world, as they stumble bleary eyed into work, grabbing the Gartman Report to find out what happened as they slept and to get insight as to what the issues of the day will be, and suggestions on how to trade. Dennis puts his trades on public display and talks you through his logic. It is a most remarkable work, and I find it a key part of my struggle in trying to keep up with what is going on. I am always amazed when on the occasions I find myself in the office at an early hour to find Dennis' letter hit my inbox about 5:00 AM. His travel schedule makes mine look tame, and from wherever in the world he finds himself, he writes and sends his letter. And he still maintains a single digit handicap on the golf course.

On the Friday after Thanksgiving, he publishes his "Rules of Trading," adding to them as wisdom increases. Here is today's list:

1. Never, under any circumstance add to a losing position.... ever! Nothing more need be said; to do otherwise will eventually and absolutely lead to ruin!

2. Trade like a mercenary guerrilla. We must fight on the winning side and be willing to change sides readily when one side has gained the upper hand.

3. Capital comes in two varieties: Mental and that which is in your pocket or account. Of the two types of capital, the mental is the more important and expensive of the two. Holding to losing positions costs measurable sums of actual capital, but it costs immeasurable sums of mental capital.

4. The objective is not to buy low and sell high, but to buy high and to sell higher. We can never know what price is "low." Nor can we know what price is "high." Always remember that sugar once fell from $1.25/lb to 2 cent/lb and seemed "cheap" many times along the way.

5. In bull markets we can only be long or neutral, and in bear markets we can only be short or neutral. That may seem self-evident; it is not, and it is a lesson learned too late by far too many.

6. "Markets can remain illogical longer than you or I can remain solvent," according to our good friend, Dr. A. Gary Shilling. Illogic often reigns and markets are enormously inefficient despite what the academics believe.

7. Sell markets that show the greatest weakness, and buy those that show the greatest strength. Metaphorically, when bearish, throw your rocks into the wettest paper sack, for they break most readily. In bull markets, we need to ride upon the strongest winds... they shall carry us higher than shall lesser ones.

8. Try to trade the first day of a gap, for gaps usually indicate violent new action. We have come to respect "gaps" in our nearly thirty years of watching markets; when they happen (especially in stocks) they are usually very important.

9. Trading runs in cycles: some good; most bad. Trade large and aggressively when trading well; trade small and modestly when trading poorly. In "good times," even errors are profitable; in "bad times" even the most well researched trades go awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it.

10. To trade successfully, think like a fundamentalist; trade like a technician. It is imperative that we understand the fundamentals driving a trade, but also that we understand the market's technicals. When we do, then, and only then, can we or should we, trade.

11. Respect "outside reversals" after extended bull or bear runs. Reversal days on the charts signal the final exhaustion of the bullish or bearish forces that drove the market previously. Respect them, and respect even more "weekly" and "monthly," reversals.

12. Keep your technical systems simple. Complicated systems breed confusion; simplicity breeds elegance.

13. Respect and embrace the very normal 50-62% retracements that take prices back to major trends. If a trade is missed, wait patiently for the market to retrace. Far more often than not, retracements happen... just as we are about to give up hope that they shall not.

14. An understanding of mass psychology is often more important than an understanding of economics. Markets are driven by human beings making human errors and also making super-human insights.

15. Establish initial positions on strength in bull markets and on weakness in bear markets. The first "addition" should also be added on strength as the market shows the trend to be working. Henceforth, subsequent additions are to be added on retracements.

16. Bear markets are more violent than are bull markets and so also are their retracements.

17. Be patient with winning trades; be enormously impatient with losing trades. Remember it is quite possible to make large sums trading/investing if we are "right" only 30% of the time, as long as our losses are small and our profits are large.

18. The market is the sum total of the wisdom ... and the ignorance...of all of those who deal in it; and we dare not argue with the market's wisdom. If we learn nothing more than this we've learned much indeed.

19. Do more of that which is working and less of that which is not: If a market is strong, buy more; if a market is weak, sell more. New highs are to be bought; new lows sold.

20. The hard trade is the right trade: If it is easy to sell, don't; and if it is easy to buy, don't. Do the trade that is hard to do and that which the crowd finds objectionable. Peter Steidelmeyer taught us this twenty five years ago and it holds truer now than then.

21. There is never one cockroach! This is the "winning" new rule submitted by our friend, Tom Powell.

22. All rules are meant to be broken: The trick is knowing when... and how infrequently this rule may be invoked!

A sure sign Gold is going to tank.....

2006-01-21T00:55:00.000+08:00

....is when I say something like I'm never going to short gold again.

Anyway I cleared a dissatisfying profit on my long and I'm going to sit on the fence for a bit.

OH! Did you notice the Dow is down ~130 pts? I sense a bit of fear in the market mwahahahahaha!

Thats the last time I short gold!!!!

2006-01-20T01:23:00.000+08:00

Needless to say I was stopped out.

...and like a good gold bull I reversed and went long.

On a different vein, never underestimate your gut feel. Closing those SP500's was spot on and in fact I'm looking at a buy signal right now.

Will update later, if I feel up to it (feeling a bit under the weather) :-(

HOGS

2006-01-19T03:17:00.000+08:00

Hey I want my shorts back!!! ;)

Cover SP500 & a flutter on a Gold short

2006-01-19T02:01:00.000+08:00

Call it silly, but I've covered with no real technical justification...call it gut feel. Sometimes its right sometimes its wrong. Netted 12 points only, but took a large position size on a day trade as well and took 5 points.

I think the dip buyers (sans any good sense)will start to come into play around about now.

The daytrade ended up being more $$$$ than the swing trade (because of the position size). Go figure.

If you look at the chart above, I was wanting to short upon the gap fill. Well we didn't quite get the gap fill, so I eventually shorted @ 1284 when I was onvinced we were headed down. Covered all @ 1279 because of the indicator divergence.

GOLD SHORT

Have taken a small short position in feb gold @ 546.10 ... Small because this is a very bullish chart still, and I can pyramid into this if it goes my way. A lot of action happened while I was asleep and would have loved to have gotten aboard @ around 553...but gotta sleep sometime :)

Looking for a retracement to a fib number.

Cover Lean Hogs

2006-01-18T03:32:00.000+08:00

OK I'm out of Feb Lean Hogs. Just over 2,000USD per contract. This was a trade that went much better than expected, especially as it took a few days to get going.

Also the Feb contract tanked much more than the longer contracts... shear luck, but I'll take it when it comes along.

As far as I'm concerned Gold is toppy

2006-01-18T01:43:00.000+08:00

Yup, I out @557.1

Enough profit to pay for groceries for a few weeks.

I'm not sure I'm looking for shorts at this stage but gonna have a good look....it's selling off quite savagely as I write this...554.60

Still short SP500, this position starting to pay me.

Thinking seriously about covering my Feb. Lean Hogs short before the day is out too.... a nice open profit thats looking ripe for plucking. :)

GOLD LONG

2006-01-13T23:47:00.000+08:00

Long ZGG06 @549.10

Still short SP500

Been slack, but will update with charts.

S&P 500

2006-01-10T22:53:00.000+08:00

Short, could be very short term, unless it isn't, details later.

GOLD Short

2006-01-09T22:13:00.000+08:00

Stopped into a short position on Feb Gold

Details/charts later

Update: had a tight stop and was stopped out pretty quickly out of this. This is much too bullish.

I got tricked by the volume on the downmove :(

Why am I not long?

SP500 - Now flat

2006-01-07T04:32:00.000+08:00

Break even stop taken out.

Where's all the bad news when you need it? At least I got the gap-fill profit.

SP500

2006-01-06T22:41:00.000+08:00

I've gone short on sp500 on the open. details to follow

11:10 EST update:

The reason I shorted was because it opened at R2 which is a floor traders resistance level. In these situations, markets like to fill in gaps, which has occurred.

Now what I've done here is actually two trades, so a double position size (This is a very low risk trade...2 point stop loss) The first trade, which was the gap fill, is done. So the first half is now exited.

The second half of the trade is with a multi-day swing trade in mind. The stop for that has now been moved to break even, and will just let this develop as it will.

Here is the state of play (3min chart):

Exit Treasuries

2006-01-04T22:35:00.000+08:00

Out of 10 yr notes. Wanted to see a continuation of yesterdays action and punch through resistance @109,28.

I'm just not a believer in interest rates lowering and I've got an excellent profit in the bag.

Profanity to follow!!

2006-01-04T04:35:00.000+08:00

I post on various forums but this is the one place I can say what I'm about to say with impunity...so here goes:

FUCKING HELL!!

There! I feel better! :)

But what words can describe adequately the move in the US equities market today following the release of the FOMC minutes . A range today in the sp500 of 25 points. We haven't seen that for some time....also big moves in gold (>$15.00) and currencies..and crude.

These are supposed to be negatively correlated to equities by the way.

An omen for volatility for 2006? I think so.

At least my hands are warm.

2006-01-04T00:00:00.000+08:00

I thought the new year trading could be a bit emotive and volatile so have sat on my hands through some excellent signals.

Gold...ahhh Gold (as I sigh wistfully looking on) I have no regrets selling last week as that fit in with my trading rules. But why didn't I re-enter today? Damn I am so wise in retrospect. What a lovely buy signal. Feb cont. been to 532 and change.

Equities...well I was right about the indexes. Volatility, but essentially back to where we started as of the moment.

Currency futures...More wistful sighs. Obvious buys on all the currencies today that I didn't take.

OIL... Still more sighs and much tutting from the missed signal last week...>$63 as I type.

On a brighter note, treasuries , cotton and agriculturals which I am still long in, are rallying pleasantly, and my short hogs position is starting to look promising.

Oh well, I had to get my hands out from under my arse to type this, maybe I can press BUY..or perhaps SELL sometime. ;)

Cheers and Happy New Year

Exit Nasdaq

2005-12-31T03:09:00.000+08:00

I have exited this trade for 35 pts per contract. Basically a measured move exit.

EXIT GOLD

2005-12-29T23:08:00.000+08:00

I've been working on the assumption that we are in a corrective stage on the Gold Chart. I took this trade, not expecting a new high, but nevertheless the risk/reward looked adequate for a long trade. We reached the 50% retracement of the down move and are getting strong resistance here.

Hence, I have exited @ 517.50 for a 4.5 x risk profit. Not bad.

Looking for the short trade next.

Crude - the one that got away

2005-12-29T03:28:00.000+08:00

In retrospect a great signal. Why? because it flew! LOL

Wish I was on it. Let watch where this goes.

Close Yen & Euro

2005-12-29T00:56:00.000+08:00

Closing out the currency trades on Yen & Euro. Small Profit on Euro full risk loss on the Yen.

SP500 - Nasdaq

2005-12-28T00:34:00.000+08:00

This trade on the sp500 was taken out by a break of an intraday trendline for break-even, plus a pittance.

I didn't like the look of it earlier in the day, so hedged it of with some nasdaq futs. So now, sans the s&p long, I am short Nasdaq.

The NQ looks like a good signal, may it go in the tank!!! Where is all the bad news when you need it?;)

A short! I feel better now! Lean Hogs

2005-12-27T23:51:00.000+08:00

We have a 3x top at ~68 and a valid trend line covering the highes during december.

Today the hogs are moving down off that trend line with a small consolidation zone over the last week. This gives us resistance at ~65.60.

A nice low risk swing trade short.

Treasuries Breaking Out

2005-12-24T01:22:00.000+08:00

I've been long on Treasuries for 2 or three weeks based on the COT data represented in the Chart below. This shows the commercials are net long and decidedly so. This is a traditional signal for a turning point in trend. I hopped in early with very little technical justification, but with a low risk entry point.
What we are now seeing is a breakout of a triangle pattern on the longer term contracts (5yr, 10yr, 30yr tbonds) as represented here in the march 10yr t-note contract. This is a nice buy signal in and of itself, but also a pleasing confirmation of view.

Of interest also is that the shorter term contracts are still resolutely inside the triangle pattern. More convergence?

Bloody Hell! I'm LONG Everything

2005-12-24T00:26:00.000+08:00

And thats unusual...not one short open position at the moment.

Apart from what I've shown here (Gold, Currencies & Equities) I'm also long on Agriculturals, Cotton and Treasuries.

I've even closed out some bear spreads on various stocks this week.

I like shorting...I want shorts...please Mister Market, can you give me some shorts!

Maybe the Nasdaq will oblige, but that will take out my moribund S&P position. At least something will be happening to spice up the festive season.

Merry Christmas, Happy Channukah ...Kwanza...Ramadan....whatever! Have a good one :)

S&P500

2005-12-23T04:44:00.000+08:00

Having another go at this contract; same justification as yesterday

I'm a Gold Bull (for now)

2005-12-22T22:59:00.000+08:00

As per the gold discussion yesterday I think we're looking like a swing low right here. So have gone long gold. I don't expect to see a new high in this swing, but you never know.

GO GOLD!

EURO & YEN

2005-12-22T22:42:00.000+08:00

COT data has been showing that the commercial currency traders have been lining up against the US Dollar in favour of the Euro, Pound and Yen. This has shown up strongly in these charts, with the Yen perhaps looking the strongest. All of these currencies have lifted from lows on the daily quite impressively.
The inevitable retracement has been to the 61.8% (There's that fib number again) and on the intraday we have a nice break to the upside from a consolidation zone/triangle.

The Yen chart(not shown) is conceptually identical excepting that the Yen has retraced only to the 38% (another fib number) which implies more strength in the move.

So I'm in long on the Euro & Yen.

Gold!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2005-12-22T02:19:00.000+08:00

Everybodies talking about gold....and everybody has a view of where it's going. I don't!

A bias can be a dangerous thing in trading. I know! I've tried to stand in front of runaway trains before. By that I mean trying to trade against a strong trend....very dumb....very expensive.

So! Where is the trend in Gold? Lets have a look at the chart. As per my usual format, daily on the left, intraday 30min chart on the right.

It was a stellar run up to 540 odd. This can be viewed, as usual, in two ways.

1/ It could be a blow off top. This is not something the gold bugs want to contemplate. I personally shorted the retracement because of the reversal bar coinciding with a monthly pivot resistance at ~540, so I was in!

One could contend that, once again, I was standing in front of a runaway train.... eerm, well this time I didn't get run over :)

That position is now liquidated. (I don't believe in giving specific figures in retropect, because they are not verifiable...there are plenty of hindsight traders who will do this mind you)

2/ We are in a retracement for further upside

So now the low today is exactly at the 61.8% retracement (funny how those fibonacci numbers keep popping up) That fit the retracement theory well, but we are head butting ~497.50.

This has formed a small intraday channel between ~492.50 and ~497.50, the breakout of which might just give us some direction for the next short term move.

To confirm the retracement theory we need to see some move over 500 very soon, or my bias would be for sideways to down.

As ever, I'll try and hitch a ride whichever way it breaks.

S&P500

2005-12-22T00:00:00.000+08:00

The sp500 has been in a bit of a consolidation zone since late Nov, as indicated in the daily chart on the left below.The chart on the right is the 30 minute intraday chart. Yesterday we had a micro 2x bottom, which coincides with the lower channel line on the daily.

Today we have a bounce off that support and a break of an intraday trend line. The oscillator is signalling a long entry also.

This represents a long opportunity, which I have already entered, with an initial target circa 1286. ( the upper channel line) I'll decide whether to exit at that point depending on price behavior at that point. (If I don't get stopped beforehand :D )

Update: Out of this trade for a 0.50 loss on entry day. Re entry not out of the question, but on the sidelines for now.

Why Blog?

2005-12-21T00:50:00.000+08:00

Why Blog?

Many people may question why some traders run weblogs, such as this one, detailing their trades.

It may seem like an exersize in self indulgence, but mor me at least, it is an exersize in disipline and self discovery.

If I make a trade and post it on this blog:

1/ I have a convenient journal for analyzing completed trades. I can then examine mistakes or otherwise I have made in the analysis and implementation of those trades.

2/ It forces more thourough and reasoned analysis on my part. If I put up a trade for the world to see, it had better make sense...I had better be able to justify the reasons for the trade, even if it goes wrong. And I hope if I do something stupid, someone will tell me :)

3/ It might help someone just starting out, to watch how at least one person trades, real time. Not examples picked in hindsight in some book.

So thats it it a nutshell. You are invited to comment on any of the trades I make, negative or positive.

Cheers