Moving on

Hi

If you've visiting here you will notice that I have discontinued posting on this blog.

Basically, living in Australia means I'm upo all night trading them. This is not a problem in and of itself, but it screws up my social life.

So I have made the decision to trade my local markets, the Australian Stock exchange and the Sydney Futures Exchange, with an eye on the NY metals and energy markets for the occasional flutter.

I am building a new site for this purpose and will announce when appropriate.

Cheers

Correction -$24!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! NM!

Gold WOW!!!

QUOTE: Gold continues to taunt by trickling upwards. This has sent me scurrying to my textbooks to try and find some sort of bearish implications in all of this so I can wait for a pull back before going long. The best I could find was a "rising wedge", which is allegedly bearish.

All I've got to say is ...... -$20 Ahahahaha

Long Yen

...and just to avoid any confusion with those of you who trade forex, the futures chart is the inverse of the cash chart as one is USD/JPY and the other is JPY/USD.

We have a trend line break on the intraday chart and looks to me like a swing low is in place. The overall trend is not that clear atm, most likely down depending on the time frame you're looking at, so hopefully we can get to a nice fib retracement number to the upside...that'd be a decent enough profit.

This has run up nicely as I am typing this, so breakeven stop is now in place.

All quiet on the western front

Meanwhile in Iran things are heating up :-o This situation is a powder keg and I can't see the advantage of the evil empire pursuing the Iranians of their nuclear program...or is it about the Euro oil bourse...either way this has the potential...likelyhood, of escalating out of control. Insanity prevails!

That said, I haven't had a futures trade since wednesday last week. Thank Christ for the Nasdaq! The double top in march crude last week was a no-brainer short, but stood staring at it like a 'roo in the headlights. That one goes into the "you idiot" file. That file is now thicker than the file from my last court case....still trying to figure out which one is more costly. LOL

Gold continues to taunt by trickling upwards. This has sent me scurrying to my textbooks to try and find some sort of bearish implications in all of this so I can wait for a pull back before going long. The best I could find was a "rising wedge", which is allegedly bearish.

These two contracts have the most potential for either elation or depression, given the current environment, hence the close eye on them.

On a different front: My occupation before becoming a full time trader was farriery (shoeing horses). Anyway I gave that the roger after one too many injuries. It pays exceptionally well (as trades go) but shit you get pummeled. Particularly as I was mainly doing racehorses...horsey folk will know what I mean.

Now most farriers are in the business of just hanging iron on the end of horses feet, but no no not me, I am actually qualified (a rarity in Australia) and was pretty good at lower leg pathology, founder and suchlike. This made the job interesting.

Anyway I got talked into doing a horse for a friend, and apart from the massive pain in my lower back and damage to my now soft, sensitive hands, I actually enjoyed it!

It looks like I'll be doing a bit here and there to justify my existence as the word has got out (there are no secrets in Geraldton LOL) Besides, I thought I'd better keep my hand in, farriers may be a high demand occupation in a few years :)

Anyway I've waffled on. Lest I run off at further tangents I'll bid you adieu.

Sell Gold

Well for better or for worse, I sold my gold contracts @ $575.10

Why? A total loss of momentum, so took the profit that was there. It was a tight stop (it started as a day trade) so 2.5 x risk. Better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick I 'spose.

Sell Crude

I've sold March Crude Oil on the basis of indicator divergence on the hourly chart at $68.00. This is a profit of 2 x risk. I'd hoped for more but the other energy contracts aren't showing much bullishness either.

I'm holding the Gold overnight

Quote: Hmmmm, taken a long on April Gold. Intended as a day trade, but my spider senses say It could develop into something more interesting. Stay tuned.

Well I sensed this would go good today. I'm officially calling a triangle breakout (even if it hasn't broken by much)so holding onto this overnight. Also Oil has closed near it's highs.

Apart from me being happy to be on a couple of winners, is this telling us something? Tensions building in Iran? Greenscum -> Helicopter Ben tranfer of power?

If you notice, long bonds are looking bearish. Benny boy gonna keep raising rates further than intimated?

Be alert folks!

April Gold

Hmmmm, taken a long on April Gold. Intended as a day trade, but my spider senses say It could develop into something more interesting. Stay tuned.

Meanwhile I still in crude oil long. It no mans land here. Looking at ~$69 resistance and a reversal bar as it stands this early in the day. I want to let this develop so giving it some room with a relatively loose intraday trailing stop.

Crude Oil

March Crude Oil, having retraced to the 61.8% level, has bounced with a comforting degree of accuracy. It has also poked through a trend line I have drawn down from the highs at ~$69. Thats good enough for me with this market....long.


As per usual, Daily on the left, intraday on the right.

Trading Rules

Well folks,

Most of you who know me, know I'm a bear. So you will be surprised to learn I've gone long on a few stocks (commodities stocks mind you :) ) via options strategies. My stock trading can be busy so I don't post them. It would take too much work to explain the option spreads and adjustments along the way.

Anyway here's Dennis Gartman's 22 rules for trading which you may find interesting.

The 22 Rules of Trading

We give you Master Trader Dennis Gartman's 22 Rules of Trading, many of which you can apply to all sorts of life situations, as well as the markets.

Every day, Dennis Gartman gets up at bout 2:30 AM and writes an information packed 4 page newsletter on the world markets, oil, currencies, commodities political happenings and much more. He is read by the major trading houses and traders all over the world, as they stumble bleary eyed into work, grabbing the Gartman Report to find out what happened as they slept and to get insight as to what the issues of the day will be, and suggestions on how to trade. Dennis puts his trades on public display and talks you through his logic. It is a most remarkable work, and I find it a key part of my struggle in trying to keep up with what is going on. I am always amazed when on the occasions I find myself in the office at an early hour to find Dennis' letter hit my inbox about 5:00 AM. His travel schedule makes mine look tame, and from wherever in the world he finds himself, he writes and sends his letter. And he still maintains a single digit handicap on the golf course.

On the Friday after Thanksgiving, he publishes his "Rules of Trading," adding to them as wisdom increases. Here is today's list:

1. Never, under any circumstance add to a losing position.... ever! Nothing more need be said; to do otherwise will eventually and absolutely lead to ruin!

2. Trade like a mercenary guerrilla. We must fight on the winning side and be willing to change sides readily when one side has gained the upper hand.

3. Capital comes in two varieties: Mental and that which is in your pocket or account. Of the two types of capital, the mental is the more important and expensive of the two. Holding to losing positions costs measurable sums of actual capital, but it costs immeasurable sums of mental capital.

4. The objective is not to buy low and sell high, but to buy high and to sell higher. We can never know what price is "low." Nor can we know what price is "high." Always remember that sugar once fell from $1.25/lb to 2 cent/lb and seemed "cheap" many times along the way.

5. In bull markets we can only be long or neutral, and in bear markets we can only be short or neutral. That may seem self-evident; it is not, and it is a lesson learned too late by far too many.

6. "Markets can remain illogical longer than you or I can remain solvent," according to our good friend, Dr. A. Gary Shilling. Illogic often reigns and markets are enormously inefficient despite what the academics believe.

7. Sell markets that show the greatest weakness, and buy those that show the greatest strength. Metaphorically, when bearish, throw your rocks into the wettest paper sack, for they break most readily. In bull markets, we need to ride upon the strongest winds... they shall carry us higher than shall lesser ones.

8. Try to trade the first day of a gap, for gaps usually indicate violent new action. We have come to respect "gaps" in our nearly thirty years of watching markets; when they happen (especially in stocks) they are usually very important.

9. Trading runs in cycles: some good; most bad. Trade large and aggressively when trading well; trade small and modestly when trading poorly. In "good times," even errors are profitable; in "bad times" even the most well researched trades go awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it.

10. To trade successfully, think like a fundamentalist; trade like a technician. It is imperative that we understand the fundamentals driving a trade, but also that we understand the market's technicals. When we do, then, and only then, can we or should we, trade.

11. Respect "outside reversals" after extended bull or bear runs. Reversal days on the charts signal the final exhaustion of the bullish or bearish forces that drove the market previously. Respect them, and respect even more "weekly" and "monthly," reversals.

12. Keep your technical systems simple. Complicated systems breed confusion; simplicity breeds elegance.

13. Respect and embrace the very normal 50-62% retracements that take prices back to major trends. If a trade is missed, wait patiently for the market to retrace. Far more often than not, retracements happen... just as we are about to give up hope that they shall not.

14. An understanding of mass psychology is often more important than an understanding of economics. Markets are driven by human beings making human errors and also making super-human insights.

15. Establish initial positions on strength in bull markets and on weakness in bear markets. The first "addition" should also be added on strength as the market shows the trend to be working. Henceforth, subsequent additions are to be added on retracements.

16. Bear markets are more violent than are bull markets and so also are their retracements.

17. Be patient with winning trades; be enormously impatient with losing trades. Remember it is quite possible to make large sums trading/investing if we are "right" only 30% of the time, as long as our losses are small and our profits are large.

18. The market is the sum total of the wisdom ... and the ignorance...of all of those who deal in it; and we dare not argue with the market's wisdom. If we learn nothing more than this we've learned much indeed.

19. Do more of that which is working and less of that which is not: If a market is strong, buy more; if a market is weak, sell more. New highs are to be bought; new lows sold.

20. The hard trade is the right trade: If it is easy to sell, don't; and if it is easy to buy, don't. Do the trade that is hard to do and that which the crowd finds objectionable. Peter Steidelmeyer taught us this twenty five years ago and it holds truer now than then.

21. There is never one cockroach! This is the "winning" new rule submitted by our friend, Tom Powell.

22. All rules are meant to be broken: The trick is knowing when... and how infrequently this rule may be invoked!

A sure sign Gold is going to tank.....

....is when I say something like I'm never going to short gold again.

Anyway I cleared a dissatisfying profit on my long and I'm going to sit on the fence for a bit.

OH! Did you notice the Dow is down ~130 pts? I sense a bit of fear in the market mwahahahahaha!

Thats the last time I short gold!!!!

Needless to say I was stopped out.

...and like a good gold bull I reversed and went long.

On a different vein, never underestimate your gut feel. Closing those SP500's was spot on and in fact I'm looking at a buy signal right now.

Will update later, if I feel up to it (feeling a bit under the weather) :-(

HOGS

Hey I want my shorts back!!! ;)

Cover SP500 & a flutter on a Gold short

Call it silly, but I've covered with no real technical justification...call it gut feel. Sometimes its right sometimes its wrong. Netted 12 points only, but took a large position size on a day trade as well and took 5 points.

I think the dip buyers (sans any good sense)will start to come into play around about now.

The daytrade ended up being more $$$$ than the swing trade (because of the position size). Go figure.



If you look at the chart above, I was wanting to short upon the gap fill. Well we didn't quite get the gap fill, so I eventually shorted @ 1284 when I was onvinced we were headed down. Covered all @ 1279 because of the indicator divergence.

GOLD SHORT

Have taken a small short position in feb gold @ 546.10 ... Small because this is a very bullish chart still, and I can pyramid into this if it goes my way. A lot of action happened while I was asleep and would have loved to have gotten aboard @ around 553...but gotta sleep sometime :)

Looking for a retracement to a fib number.

Cover Lean Hogs

OK I'm out of Feb Lean Hogs. Just over 2,000USD per contract. This was a trade that went much better than expected, especially as it took a few days to get going.

Also the Feb contract tanked much more than the longer contracts... shear luck, but I'll take it when it comes along.

As far as I'm concerned Gold is toppy

Yup, I out @557.1

Enough profit to pay for groceries for a few weeks.

I'm not sure I'm looking for shorts at this stage but gonna have a good look....it's selling off quite savagely as I write this...554.60

Still short SP500, this position starting to pay me.

Thinking seriously about covering my Feb. Lean Hogs short before the day is out too.... a nice open profit thats looking ripe for plucking. :)

GOLD LONG

Long ZGG06 @549.10

Still short SP500

Been slack, but will update with charts.

S&P 500

Short, could be very short term, unless it isn't, details later.

GOLD Short

Stopped into a short position on Feb Gold

Details/charts later

Update: had a tight stop and was stopped out pretty quickly out of this. This is much too bullish.

I got tricked by the volume on the downmove :(

Why am I not long?